Friday, November 26, 2004

One in 4.5 billion

From a post on the Democratic Underground forums:

ONE OUT OF 4.5 BILLION!

Those are the odds that Kerry's EXIT poll percentage would EXCEED his ACTUAL reported vote percentage by MORE THAN THE MARGIN OF ERROR in 16 out of 51 States by chance alone. That is exactly what occurred on Nov. 2.

I know that is hard to fathom. But here is the data. And here is the calculation, based on the number of individuals polled in each state and the corresponding Margin of Error (MOE).

The chances of a given state falling outside the MOE = 1/20 = .05. The calculation for the probability that 16 out of 51 states would fall outside the MOE is a simple one which uses the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION:

The Probability (P) that at least 16 out of 51 states would deviate beyond the exit poll MOE is:

P = 1-BINOMDIST(16,51,0.05,TRUE)

This returns P= 0.0000000218559% or 1 out of 4,575,415,347!

Here is how the odds decrease as the number of states (N) exceeding the MOE increase:

N>MOE Odds
3: 1 out of 4
5: 1 out of 24
8: 1 out of 139
10: 1 out of 2707
12: 1 out of 1,037,879
14: 1 out of 57,503,169
15: 1 out of 490,978,624
16: 1 out of 4,575,415,347

The individual state probabilities are calculated using the Normal distribution Function.

For example, consider Florida: The probability that Kerry's 50.51% exit poll percentage would decline to 47.47% in the actual vote (a 4.04% deviation, far outside the 1.84% MOE) is equal to .06%.

This calculation is based on the FL exit poll sample size of 2846, which produces a MOE of 1.84%. The corresponding standard deviation (StDev) is 0.94%. The StDev is plugged into the normal distribution function, along with the exit poll and reported vote percentages.

The probability that this deviation would occur due to chance is:
.06% = 100*NORMDIST(47.47%,50.51%,.94%,TRUE)

Here are the Exit Poll and Voting Results for all the states:

Size refers to the exit poll sample size for the given state. The percentages are Kerry's Exit Polls and reported Votes.

............Kerry

State   Size    Exit    Vote    Diff    StDev   MoE     Prob    >MoE?   Favor
DE      770     58.50%  53.54%  -4.96%  1.80%   3.53%   0.29    yes     Bush
NH      1849    55.40%  50.51%  -4.89%  1.16%   2.28%   0.00    yes     Bush
VT      685     65.00%  60.20%  -4.80%  1.91%   3.74%   0.60    yes     Bush
SC      1735    46.00%  41.41%  -4.59%  1.20%   2.35%   0.01    yes     Bush
NE      785     36.76%  32.32%  -4.44%  1.78%   3.50%   0.64    yes     Bush

AK      910     40.50%  36.08%  -4.42%  1.66%   3.25%   0.38    yes     Bush
AL      730     41.00%  37.00%  -4.00%  1.85%   3.63%   1.53    yes     Bush
NC      2167    48.00%  44.00%  -4.00%  1.07%   2.11%   0.01    yes     Bush
NY      1452    63.00%  59.18%  -3.82%  1.31%   2.57%   0.18    yes     Bush
CT      872     58.50%  55.10%  -3.40%  1.69%   3.32%   2.24    yes     Bush

RI      809     64.00%  60.61%  -3.39%  1.76%   3.45%   2.68            Bush
MA      889     66.00%  62.63%  -3.37%  1.68%   3.29%   2.21    yes     Bush
PA      1930    54.35%  51.00%  -3.35%  1.14%   2.23%   0.16    yes     Bush
MS      798     43.26%  40.00%  -3.26%  1.77%   3.47%   3.29            Bush
OH      1963    52.10%  49.00%  -3.10%  1.13%   2.21%   0.30    yes     Bush

FL      2846    50.51%  47.47%  -3.03%  0.94%   1.84%   0.06    yes     Bush
MN      2178    54.50%  51.52%  -2.98%  1.07%   2.10%   0.27    yes     Bush
UT      798     30.50%  27.55%  -2.95%  1.77%   3.47%   4.78            Bush
ID      559     33.50%  30.61%  -2.89%  2.11%   4.14%   8.60            Bush
AZ      1859    47.00%  44.44%  -2.56%  1.16%   2.27%   1.38    yes     Bush

VA      1000    47.96%  45.45%  -2.50%  1.58%   3.10%   5.66            Bush
LA      1669    44.50%  42.42%  -2.08%  1.22%   2.40%   4.49            Bush
IL      1392    57.00%  55.00%  -2.00%  1.34%   2.63%   6.78            Bush
WI      2223    52.50%  50.51%  -1.99%  1.06%   2.08%   3.00            Bush
WV      1722    45.25%  43.43%  -1.82%  1.20%   2.36%   6.54            Bush

NM      1951    51.30%  49.49%  -1.81%  1.13%   2.22%   5.54            Bush
CO      2515    49.10%  47.47%  -1.63%  1.00%   1.95%   5.15            Bush
IN      926     41.00%  39.39%  -1.61%  1.64%   3.22%   16.42           Bush
GA      1536    43.00%  41.41%  -1.59%  1.28%   2.50%   10.69           Bush
MO      2158    47.50%  46.00%  -1.50%  1.08%   2.11%   8.17            Bush

NJ      1520    55.00%  53.54%  -1.46%  1.28%   2.51%   12.67           Bush
WA      2123    54.95%  53.54%  -1.41%  1.09%   2.13%   9.70            Bush
IA      2502    50.65%  49.49%  -1.15%  1.00%   1.96%   12.41           Bush
AR      1402    46.60%  45.45%  -1.15%  1.34%   2.62%   19.55           Bush
KY      1034    41.00%  40.00%  -1.00%  1.55%   3.05%   26.01           Bush

OK      1539    35.00%  34.00%  -1.00%  1.27%   2.50%   21.63           Bush
MI      2452    52.50%  51.52%  -0.98%  1.01%   1.98%   16.47           Bush
NV      2116    49.35%  48.48%  -0.87%  1.09%   2.13%   21.29           Bush
ME      1968    54.75%  54.08%  -0.66%  1.13%   2.21%   27.80           Bush
MD      1000    57.00%  56.57%  -0.43%  1.58%   3.10%   39.18           Bush

DC      795     91.00%  90.91%  -0.09%  1.77%   3.48%   47.96           Bush
MT      640     39.76%  39.80%  0.04%   1.98%   3.87%   50.72           Kerry
OR      1064    51.20%  52.00%  0.80%   1.53%   3.00%   69.91           Kerry
HI      499     53.30%  54.55%  1.25%   2.24%   4.39%   71.10           Kerry
TX      1671    37.00%  38.38%  1.38%   1.22%   2.40%   87.10           Kerry

TN      1774    41.50%  43.00%  1.50%   1.19%   2.33%   89.68           Kerry
CA      1919    54.00%  55.56%  1.56%   1.14%   2.24%   91.35           Kerry
SD      1495    37.76%  39.39%  1.63%   1.29%   2.53%   89.65           Kerry
ND      649     34.00%  36.36%  2.36%   1.96%   3.85%   88.58           Kerry
KS      654     35.00%  37.37%  2.37%   1.96%   3.83%   88.76           Kerry

Avg     1450    49.18%  47.38%  -1.80%  1.42%   2.79%   21.67           Bush
Med     1507.5  49.23%  47.47%  -1.81%  1.29%   2.52%   6.66            Bush

Wednesday, November 24, 2004

I found Nemo!

image via flickr.com
nemo
Originally uploaded by krewemaynard.

I found Nemo!

Sunday, November 07, 2004

Trying to Sleep in Here!!!

image via flickr.com
Trying to Sleep in Here!!!
Originally uploaded by latenightowl.

"latenightowl" tends to a gang of raccoons, and regularly posts photos of them on flickr. This is my favorite so far. She also has some videos of the mischievous little guys.

Thursday, November 04, 2004

This presidency brought to you by...

Something I whipped up. If you like it, please pass it on to sites that might use it. (BartCop, BuzzFlash, or anybody who might like to put it on their website.) Be sure to get the largest version!" Here's the original in all different sizes.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Blog Interrupted

Jessica Cutler blogged anonymously and luridly about her exploits with politicians and staffers, but when her identity was discovered, she gained very sudden unwanted fame.

The Washington Post has a fascinating and enjoyable article about Jessica's outing and what followed.